The NDA’s 160-seat target in Bihar is as ambitious as the 400 Paar slogan in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. It might become a high-wire act for the NDA, over caste divides, anti-incumbency, and a rising third force of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj. With the youth, women, and first-time voters holding the balance, even a small slip could turn a projected sweep into a setback.
Bihar, on Thursday, is voting in the first phase of its high-stakes Assembly polls. And the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is chasing a lofty goal, “160 paar”, which is almost a two-thirds majority in the 243-seat Assembly. The 160-seat target brings to mind another ambitious BJP battle cry—”Ab ki baar, Char Sau Paar”.
And, much like the BJP’s 2024 “400 paar” dream that crashed at 293 Lok Sabha seats for the NDA, the Bihar target might prove elusive.
“The situation is very good. We are in a comfortable position. We will win more than 160 seats in Bihar,” BJP leader and Union Home Minister Amit Shah told India Today TV on November 4.
Regional churn, caste realignments, and the entry of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party have the possibility of turning what seems like a sweep into a setback.
On Thursday, polling is underway in 121 constituencies of Bihar. Polling for the remaining seats will take place in the second phase on November 11, with results expected on November 14.
The NDA is banking on its Sankalp Patra promises, like one crore jobs and free healthcare, to negate the voter fatigue. The NDA, comprising BJP (101 seats), JD(U) (101), LJP(RV) (29), and smaller allies, had dominated 2024 Lok Sabha segments, leading in 174 Assembly seats. But Assembly arithmetic rarely mirrors parliamentary trends. In the 2020 Assembly polls, the NDA barely edged out the Mahagathbandhan with 125 seats to 110.
The opposing Mahagathbandhan camp, comprising the RJD, the Congress and the CPI (ML) L, has mocked the 160 paar claim as “arrogance”. “They’ll struggle to cross 60 seats in Bihar,” RJD leader Mrityunjay Tiwari claimed.
With 7.4 crore voters, including 14 lakh first-timers, Bihar’s verdict will test if the NDA’s development talk trumps anger over Nitish’s frequent flip-flops and two decades of anti-incumbency. Getting to 160 seats, may be an uphill task for the NDA.
The last time the 160-seat mark was crossed was in 2015, when Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), as part of the Mahagathbandhan with the RJD, bagged 178 seats. Prior to that, the NDA, with JD(U) and BJP, had won 206 seats in 2010.
ECHOES OF BJP’s 400 PAAR AS BIHAR VOTES
PM Narendra Modi’s 400 paar slogan was meant to signal national dominance. It instead exposed the limits of the alliance leadership’s overconfidence. Bihar’s 160 paar carries the same risk. Shah insists the NDA will cross 160, banking on the 2024 Lok Sabha poll’s momentum. Yet, sweeping 30 of 40 Lok Sabha seats doesn’t guarantee Assembly success. In the 2020 Assembly polls, the NDA’s thin margins (with a margin of under 5,000 votes in 40 seats) show the boast could actually be fragile beneath.
Pollsters warn that Bihar’s complex caste equations could blunt the NDA’s projected 52% vote share. Like 400 paar, the Bihar target might collapse.
Article source: indiatoday.in
